The market strongly favors Rate / Cut at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rate / Cut | 94% | +7% | $118 |
| 2 | Chair | 80% | +26% | $364 |
| 3 | Good Afternoon | 77% | +30% | $4K |
| 4 | Balance Sheet | 76% | +32% | $163 |
| 5 | Artificial Intelligence / AI | 76% | +32% | $210 |
| 6 | Jerome / Powell | 74% | +35% | $20 |
| 7 | FED | 74% | +36% | $22 |
| 8 | Stable / Stability | 64% | +55% | $29 |
| 9 | Inflation 40+ times | 62% | +63% | $162 |
| 10 | Dual Mandate | 53% | +89% | $65 |
| 11 | Money | 52% | +92% | $20 |
| 12 | Job 15+ times | 51% | +96% | $369 |
| 13 | Maximum Employment | 51% | +96% | $45 |
| 14 | Depression / Recession | 47% | +113% | $2K |
| 15 | Job Market | 42% | +135% | $25 |
| 16 | All-Time High / All-Time Low | 42% | +141% | $265 |
| 17 | Trend | 42% | +141% | $15 |
| 18 | Downside | 41% | +144% | $15 |
| 19 | Asymmetric | 40% | +147% | $696 |
| 20 | Inflation 50+ times BEST VALUE | 40% | +150% | $50 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on June 17, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the follow...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Rate / Cut is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (76% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 18:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Rate / Cut at 94% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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