The market strongly favors Ancient at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ancient | 100% | - | $2K |
| 2 | World War II | 100% | - | $2K |
| 3 | Paper | 100% | - | $9K |
| 4 | Confucius / Confucian | 100% | - | $8K |
| 5 | Forbidden City | 2% | +4248% | $1K |
| 6 | Friendship | 2% | +6352% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a State Banquet in Beijing on May 14, 2026, 6AM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Ancient at 100% probability, with $59K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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