The market strongly favors November 19 at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 19 | 94% | +6% | $4K |
| 2 | November 20 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $2K |
| 3 | November 21 | 1% | +8596% | $894 |
| 4 | November 18 | 1% | +8991% | $1K |
| 5 | November 22 | 1% | +16567% | $691 |
| 6 | No visit by November 22 | 1% | +18082% | $758 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and No...
This prediction market tracks whether When will Trump leave China? will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: November 19 is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 12, 2026 at 06:45 UTC, the leading outcome is November 19 at 94% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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