Steve Witkoff leads at 68%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Witkoff | 68% | +46% | $270 |
| 2 | Abbas Araghchi | 68% | +48% | $97 |
| 3 | Jared Kushner | 64% | +55% | $170 |
| 4 | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 58% | +71% | $60 |
| 5 | Ahmad Vahidi | 43% | +133% | $25 |
| 6 | Majid Takht-Ravanchi | 36% | +178% | $20 |
| 7 | Nick Stewart | 36% | +178% | $20 |
| 8 | Kazem Gharibabadi | 33% | +203% | $723 |
| 9 | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | 32% | +212% | $781 |
| 10 | J.D. Vance | 30% | +228% | $40 |
| 11 | Ishaq Dar | 25% | +300% | $742 |
| 12 | Marco Rubio | 24% | +308% | $40 |
| 13 | Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | 23% | +335% | $861 |
| 14 | Masoud Pezeshkian | 22% | +365% | $40 |
| 15 | Rafael Grossi | 20% | +400% | $37 |
| 16 | Donald Trump | 12% | +700% | $59 |
| 17 | Esmail Qaani | 8% | +1150% | $205 |
| 18 | Pete Hegseth BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $2K |
| 19 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 4% | +2173% | $19K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and Decemb...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? will occur, with $23K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Steve Witkoff at 68%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (94% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 09:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Steve Witkoff at 68% probability, with $23K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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