The market strongly favors Jared Kushner at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $1.1M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Kushner | 100% | - | $215K |
| 2 | Steve Witkoff | 100% | - | $69K |
| 3 | Abbas Araghchi | 100% | - | $46K |
| 4 | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | 100% | - | $115K |
| 5 | Ishaq Dar | 30% | +228% | $36K |
| 6 | Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | 28% | +264% | $54K |
| 7 | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 26% | +277% | $119K |
| 8 | Nick Stewart | 24% | +317% | $26K |
| 9 | Kazem Gharibabadi | 22% | +344% | $26K |
| 10 | Majid Takht-Ravanchi | 22% | +365% | $25K |
| 11 | J.D. Vance | 17% | +488% | $71K |
| 12 | Rafael Grossi | 13% | +669% | $46K |
| 13 | Masoud Pezeshkian | 11% | +809% | $58K |
| 14 | Donald Trump | 10% | +900% | $42K |
| 15 | Marco Rubio | 8% | +1076% | $41K |
| 16 | Pete Hegseth | 6% | +1438% | $22K |
| 17 | Esmail Qaani | 6% | +1639% | $12K |
| 18 | Mohammed bin Salman | 6% | +1718% | $15K |
| 19 | Ahmad Vahidi BEST VALUE | 5% | +1769% | $21K |
| 20 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 4% | +2432% | $25K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and Decemb...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? will occur, with $1.1M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Jared Kushner is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-06-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 29, 2026 at 02:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Jared Kushner at 100% probability, with $1.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.1M, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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