This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 58% | $75K |
| 2 | Tulsi Gabbard | 12% | $727K |
| 3 | Pete Hegseth | 10% | $677K |
| 4 | None before 2027 | 7% | $757K |
| 5 | Howard Lutnick | 2% | $26K |
| 6 | Brooke Rollins | 2% | $7K |
| 7 | J.D. Vance | 2% | $7K |
| 8 | Russell T. Vought | 1% | $4K |
| 9 | Scott Bessent | 1% | $5K |
| 10 | Doug Burgum | 1% | $6K |
| 11 | Pam Bondi | 1% | $4K |
| 12 | Marco Rubio | 1% | $51K |
| 13 | Sean Duffy | 1% | $67K |
| 14 | Scott Turner | 1% | $6K |
| 15 | Susie Wiles | 1% | $5K |
| 16 | Jamieson Greer | 1% | $5K |
| 17 | Mike Waltz | 1% | $5K |
| 18 | Doug Collins | 1% | $4K |
| 19 | Kelly Loeffler | 1% | $4K |
| 20 | Lee Zeldin | 1% | $71K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58% probability, with $2.5M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.5M, with $62K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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