This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | April 30 | 41% | $18K |
| 2 | April 15 | 25% | - |
| 3 | March 31 | 1% | $714K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is April 30 at 41% probability, with $731K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $731K, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade