No clear favorite. Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? leads at just 4%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | 4% | +2122% | $22K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? leads at only 4% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (62% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 11:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? at 4% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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